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Selon FARHI, CABALLERO, GOURINCHAS (2011), les bons du trésor américains constituent une sorte de protection, une valeur refuge en période d'incertitude à l'origine de pénuries de dollars. Dans les périodes d'incertitude, où l'aversion pour le risque augmente, le prix des bons du trésor augmente et les taux d'intérêt ont tendance à baisser. Normalement, le développement économique s'accompagne d'une demande accrue pour les actifs sûrs. Cette demande d'actifs libellés en dollar relâche ainsi les contraintes de financement pour les Etats-Unis. Pour eux, il est plus facile de financer leur déficit courant et leur déficit budgétaire.

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