Econometrics Questions

Forecast error a. takes a positive value when the forecast is too high. b. cannot be negative. c. cannot be zero. d. is associated with measuring forecast accuracy.

A set of observations on a variable measured at successive points in time or over successive periods of time constitute a a. geometric series. b. time invariant set. c. time series. d. logarithmic series.

Trend refers to a. the long-run shift or movement in the time series observable over several periods of time. b. the outcome of a random experiment. c. the recurring patterns observed over successive periods of time. d. the short-run shift or movement in the time series observable for some specific period of time.

A time series that shows a recurring pattern over one year or less is said to follow a a. horizontal pattern. b. stationary pattern. c. cyclical pattern. d. seasonal pattern.

An exponential trend pattern occurs when a. the amount of increase between periods in the value of the variable is constant. b. the percentage change between periods in the value of the variable is relatively constant. c. there is a no relationship between the time series variable and time. d. there are random fluctuations in the variable value with time.

Using a large value for order k in the moving averages method is effective in a. tracking changes in a time series more quickly. b. smoothing out random fluctuations. c. providing a forecast when only the most recent time series are relevant. d. eliminating the effect of seasonal variations in the time series.

Which of the following is not true of a stationary time series? a. The process generating the data has a constant mean. b. The time series plot is a straight line. c. The statistical properties are independent of time. d. The variability is constant over time.

__________ is the amount by which the predicted value differs from the observed value of the time series variable. a. Mean forecast error b. Mean absolute error c. Smoothing constant d. Forecast error

In the moving averages method, the order k determines the a. error tolerance. b. compensation for forecasting error. c. number of time series values under consideration. d. number of samples in each unit time period.

The moving averages and exponential smoothing methods are appropriate for a time series exhibiting a. a horizontal pattern. b. a cyclical pattern. c. trends. d. seasonal effects.

If a time series plot exhibits a horizontal pattern, then a. it is evident that the time series is stationary. b. the data fluctuates around the variable mean. c. there is no relationship between time and the time series variable. d. there is still not enough evidence to conclude that the time series is stationary.

Which is not true regarding trend patterns? a. Can result when business conditions shift to a new level at some point in time b. Exist when there are gradual shifts of values over long periods of time c. Can result from factors such as improving technology or changes in consumer preferences d. Can represent nonlinear relationships

A forecast is defined as a(n) a. prediction of future values of a time series. b. quantitative method used when historical data on the variable of interest are either unavailable or not applicable. c. set of observations on a variable measured at successive points in time. d. outcome of a random experiment.

Which of the following states the objective of time series analysis? a. To predict the values of a time series based on one or more other variables b. To analyze the cause-and-effect relationship of a dependent variable with a time series and one or more other variables c. To use present variable values to study what should have been the ideal past values d. To uncover a pattern in a time series and then extrapolate the pattern into the future

Which of the following is not present in a time series? a. Seasonality b. Operational variations c. Trend d. Cycles

Which nonlinear regression model is appropriate when the slope, capturing the influence of x on y, changes in magnitude as well as sign?Exponential Regression ModelQuadratic regression modelLogarithm regression modelLog-Log Regression Model

Note that the greater the k, the lesser will be the reliability of the k-fold method and the greater will be its computational cost.TrueFalse

It is common to assess the performance of linear probability and logistic regression models on the basis of the '________________________' rates defined as the percentage of correctly classified observations

In the semi-log regression model not all variables are transformed into logs.The semi-log model that transforms only the response variable is often called:Logarithmic regression modelLog-log regression modelExponential regression modelQuadratic regression model

Place the steps of the holdout method in the proper order:We partition the sample data into two parts, labeled training set and validation set correct toggle button unavailableWe use the training set to estimate competing models. correct toggle button unavailableWe use the estimates from the training set to predict the response variable in the validation set correct toggle button unavailableWe calculate the accuracy rate for each competing model. The preferred model will have the smallest RMSE (or the largest accuracy rate).